WHEN DO YOU EXPECT THE UK ECONOMY TO STOP CONTRACTING?
MICHAEL SAUNDERS CITIGROUP
Fourth quarter of 2009. A combination of reduced destocking, an improvement in financial conditions and signs that consumption and investment may become less weak. The conditions for a recession to end are not yet in place: we’re not there yet, but we’re on the way.
JAMES KNIGHTLEY ING
Within three months. Over the last couple of months the data has generally surprised to the upside and PMI forecasts are pretty much consistent with flat GDP. But I have doubts about the sustainability of this – we are still seeing falling profits growth and surging unemployment.
JAMIE DANNHAUSER LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH
Third quarter of 2009. Our view is that you might get a slightly better second and third quarter this year but the structural changes that the UK economy is undergoing will mean a slower and weaker recovery. The output gap will also continue to expand until the second half of 2010.