By: Paul Ormerod

Paul Ormerod is an economist at Volterra Partners LLP, author and an Honorary Professor at the Alliance Business School at the University of Manchester

All 173 Articles

State intervention can boost our economy but only the private sector can rebalance it

February 9, 2022

The government’s long awaited levelling up white paper was met with a lukewarm reception last week. One of the main complaints was that there was not enough – or in fact any – new money for the regions. Many localities have become stuck with low levels of productivity and, as a consequence, low levels of [...]
Uncertainty from our leaders is keeping our economic recovery wavering on the brink

February 2, 2022

In November last year, the UK’s total GDP output finally regained its pre-pandemic level. But although the economic recovery is on an upward trajectory, there is a disconcerting stop-start hesitancy to it. A reasonable indicator of where the economy stands in any given month is the purchasing managers’ index which shows the prevailing direction of [...]
Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency

January 26, 2022

By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still learn from the experience [...]
Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk

January 19, 2022

The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data [...]
The mountain of debt cannot be ignored no matter how much the economy grows

January 12, 2022

Politicians and regulators are increasingly concerned about one phenomenon: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Nearly a year ago, the government agreed to regulate BNPL lenders, with an independent review chaired by City expert Christopher Woolard warning the sector represented a “significant potential consumer harm”. A Treasury consultation on BNPL only closed at the end of last year. It [...]
Lending a hand: government loans to energy firms can’t be the final answer

January 5, 2022

Some of the media seem to have become addicted to gloom. Most outfits have become cautiously optimistic on Covid-19, but the prospective double squeeze on living standards has rushed in to fill the gap. Consumers are faced with tax increases and sharp rises in energy bills. The surge in the world price of energy means [...]
Three Christmas presents for a Cabinet that lacks political grip

December 22, 2021

At this time of the year hapless members of the Cabinet, and even the Prime Minister himself, are entitled to some charity. We might usefully consider the gifts we would put under their trees on Christmas morning. Top of the list could well be both a Peloton and a deckchair. Sarah Healey, permanent secretary at [...]
Precaution is a useful thing, but designing policy based on maybes is a dangerous road

December 16, 2021

It is is so familiar, the script almost writes itself. Health professionals start to call for more restrictive measures at the slightest whiff of bad news. The government initially dismisses the concerns. Gradually, ministers – many of them almost wholly innumerate – are beaten into submission by projections of what might happen. If we were [...]
Schools across the country have forgotten how to teach kids to aspire to be better

December 8, 2021

Omicron, the new Covid variant, has had an unexpected victim: the long-awaited White Paper on levelling up. Boris Johnson’s plans to put his 2019 election pledge into reality will not be published until New Year, to give the government more time to focus on containing Covid. The document, set to span industry, skills and transport, [...]
Unchallenged inflation will make strike action the norm in a new labour market

December 1, 2021

Last Friday, London once again muddled through the inconvenience of yet another Tube strike. Another one is planned for the middle of December. They are just as much a feature of the metropolitan scene as Big Ben. Until more of the trains are automated, Tube staff will retain the capacity to cause disruption. But this [...]

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Premiership run-in: Saints and Bath will impact top four

Here We Are, National Theatre, review: Stephen Sondheim musical is more Severance than sing-a-long

By: Paul Ormerod

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